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Sprint miss-risk calculator

Software doesn’t finish in a straight line — it finishes on an S-curve. Being behind is normal early and near-fatal late. Enter where your sprint is; get a calibrated chance of missing.

Enter how far into the sprint you are and how much is genuinely done (merged, not just moved to Done). No signup — this runs in your browser.

Tip: if the board says 60% but only 40% has merged code, enter 40 — the code is the truth.
Forecast🟢 On track
44%
chance of missing the 80% commitment
range 2464%
80% on-time
84%
Projected to land
41%
Usually done by now

On pace — projected to land about 84% of scope. Being a little behind this early is normal.

Runs entirely in your browser — no data is sent anywhere. It uses the same S-curve and calibration math KalMatrix runs on your real Jira & GitHub, using the typical software-team curve where the tool has no history of your own.

This is one number. KalMatrix computes it for every sprint, from your real data.

It reads your Jira and GitHub, forecasts each active sprint against your team’s own history, and hands you one decision a day — with the receipts. See it on a fully-populated demo in 30 seconds.

Why trust the forecast?